There have been many private sellers coming out of the woodwork since the silver spot price busted through the $100/ounce level, and since gold followed suit in shattering what many have erroneously regarded as the $5,000/oz “ceiling”. By all appearances, prices for both metals shot right through those levels without as much as a passing glance.
Now there are many who have already started making sales, whether of their physical metals or some shares of mining stocks. Some small. Some fairly substantial. And then some, like the prominent investor Rick Rule, liquidating large chunks of their portfolios.
When Rick Rule made this announcement at the Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver, Canada, on the 24th of January, he made a number of excellent points, issued sound guidance on the probable course of the current bull market, and ultimately urged his audience to not “waste this bull market”. He proclaimed that, while this bull market may go on for years, those who believe that 2026 will be as good as 2025 are believing in the tooth fairy.
While it’s certainly not much of a stretch to stake such a claim, given the historic performance we observed in precious metals in 2025, it is a bit extreme, not to mention insulting, to liken to the tooth fairy those who believe that the metals are just getting started. After all, silver prices were still below $50/oz just a couple of months ago. So, considering that silver started 2025 around $29/oz, that means that roughly three-fifths of its gains to $79/oz (the 2025 high) came in the final month of the year. It’s certainly within the bounds of reason to think that this could carry on through some part of 2026, and (as we have seen) that is precisely what has happened thus far. Year-to-date, silver has already gained forty-four percent to $114/oz, while gold has gained more than sixteen percent to $5,300/oz.
Nonetheless, among those who wish to take profits or to pivot into other asset classes, they are more than entitled to make their own determinations. Whether or not I agree with them, I won’t be calling any of them any names. However, I will point them in the direction of my article Silver and Gold (published in December 2025) and the various other articles I’ve published on the subject, and I will suggest that they read what follows here before making any final decisions. Beyond that, I will wish them luck.
First, if you are considering liquidating any part of your physical precious metals holdings, you’ll have to find a good buyer. Right now, American metals refineries (who currently form the basis for domestic liquidity) are backlogged with inventory, so they are buying a bit back of spot for virtually any and all silver — while refineries are currently paying more (relative to spot) for gold, usually not far from the spot price, it would at this time be unwise to liquidate a major portion of one’s gold holdings for the mere fact that, as part of any portfolio, gold represents the backbone stabilizing the portfolio and protecting the holder against risks assumed elsewhere. This means that until the refineries have sorted through their inventory — and that will require some time — private sellers will instantly realize a not-insignificant loss (relative to spot) if they elect to sell right now. This also means that, in the event that the seller is hoping to buy back in at a lower price, spot prices will have to fall that much further just to offset the loss realized at the point of sale; then one will also need to consider the premiums to be paid upon reentry. Patience, in this case, could itself prove profitable, even if the silver price remains flat or pulls back slightly.
Second, you must consider your strategy: you must consider where exactly you are you going to transfer your purchasing power. If you are looking to make a big purchase or to pay down debt, that is a highly personal decision — in the first case (consumption), I would advise against it, merely for the fact that it will prove costlier down the road in the form of opportunity cost (and ‘down the road’ in this case may not be very long); in the second (paying down debt), I would have to know the interest rate (as well as the present ratio between cash available, or average cashflow, and outstanding principal) to give an educated opinion. Assuming any debt at all, and assuming sufficient means to service that debt and a very low interest rate (in many cases a rate well below the rate of inflation), I would advise against paying it down — to instead remain invested and keep holding for the benefit of hedging against income, monetary, and broader economic risk.
If you are intending on rotating into other asset classes or mitigating risk, I would (at minimum) advise against holding cash — the dollar is in a secular decline, and the recent move in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) affirms this. If you are interested in mitigating risk, it would be advisable to consider a strategy of liquidating silver in favor of gold — the gold-to-silver price ratio has declined dramatically since I called the top of this ratio in March of 2020 (around the same time that I also called the very bottom in the precious metals markets), and as that price ratio continues to slide, it makes for a bargain on gold as priced in silver. In fact, this might just be the most sensible trading strategy for silver: a means by which to eventually expand one's gold holdings, where the latter offers more safety, stability, and protection against the risks posed by volatility and market manipulation; the latter having its basis not just in the history of the Hunt brothers in 1980, but in the track record of institutional traders exploiting the unique susceptibility of what is a rather small market. However, so far as the price relationship between gold and silver is concerned, it is well within the realm of possibility that this price ratio will continue to fall over time, and that it could soon even test the 40:1 level. For this reason, it is a matter of just how much risk and volatility the holder of silver is prepared to stomach in considering this distinct possibility.
Remember, in 1980, the gold-to-silver price ratio plunged to roughly 14:1 at its intraday low, and the DJIA-to-gold ratio dropped to about 1:1, meaning that roughly one ounce of gold could buy the entire Dow Jones Industrial Average. Also consider 2011, when the gold-to-silver price ratio fell to 31:1 from its 2009 high of around 78:1. In 2011, the DJIA-to-gold ratio fell below 6:1, after reaching 45:1 in August of 1999. Today, with gold setting all-time highs around $5,300/oz and the Dow around 49,000, the DJIA-to-gold ratio is approaching 9:1. Put into perspective, in the event that the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains unchanged and the DJIA-to-gold price ratio were to decline to 6:1 in alignment with the 2011 low, gold would be priced at $8,166.66; and if the gold-to-silver ratio were to fall to its 2011 low of 31:1, that would mean that the silver price (today hovering around $114/oz) would rise to $263.44.
Whatever your strategy, it is crucial to note the following: we are currently in a phase of increasing volatility risk, but while we will doubtless continue to see relatively large daily moves in the prices of precious metals, the man interested in profit-taking must essentially ask himself where he intends to head next, and, just as importantly, whether he is committing himself to a strategy of picking up pennies on the tracks as the trains are rapidly approaching.
I strongly encourage the reader to check out my article titled Silver and Gold for a synopsis published near the end of December. The same dynamics are still relevant, and it is important to note that the forces driving precious metals prices higher are far beyond domestic factors alone. We are most assuredly in a place in time with enough financial, monetary, social, political, industrial, and geopolitical risk to warrant protecting real assets.
I will also add this: people (perhaps even Rick Rule included) often commit the mistake of comparing physical precious metals to stocks. We mustn’t commit this mistake. Precious metals serve a very specific purpose in a portfolio: they are held not for dividends or cash-flow but as monetary insurance. Likewise, precious metals markets operate very differently from the stock market: whereas shareholders in any business must account for the limitations imposed upon any business expansion, organizationally and logistically — limitations which cap business potential in a real sense — the market for precious metals operates very differently: prices in precious metals are not restrained by those physical limitations, but are in fact capable of rapid repricing when confidence and trust are being lost in the common currency.
The fact that gold, not just silver, is repeatedly setting new all-time highs implies that this bull market still has a ways to go, but I would argue that the forces — political, industrial, geopolitical, monetary, and economic — are further supporting the notion that precious metals prices are still in the beginnings of their repricing. President Trump has publicly declared his ‘accommodative’ posture toward lower interest rates and measures amounting to more ‘quantitative easing’. In fact, with President Trump planning to nominate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s replacement later this week, and with the fate of the upcoming midterm elections hanging in the balance, and with the rising fear and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. dollar (as evidenced by the lows in consumer confidence, the historic rallies in precious metals, and the emerging weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index, among other factors), the Federal Reserve may soon be assuming an even more ‘accommodative’ posture as the ‘lender of last resort’ (as past buyers of U.S. debt — foreign and domestic— look elsewhere, perhaps to gold and silver). Taking these factors into account, along with the apprehensions about COMEX inventories, the recent inflows into gold and silver ETFs, and the swelling reserves of gold and silver bullion at many of the central banks around the world, this could well signal a ‘regime change’ or a shift in attitudes among the public, central banks, and institutional investors: this is where gains can be distributed for even greater profit-taking, if indeed these flows continue throughout the year. Ultimately, for those concerned that this bull run in precious metals is in bubble territory, they must also consider the very real possibility that the bubble has been in the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated debt, and that gold and silver might just represent the pin that popped that bubble, or the gauge tracking its collapse. At the bare minimum, whatever the decision, the intelligent investor will at least admit this possibility before making his determination.
On a personal note:
I care about precious metals because they’re not just financial vehicles; they represent part of the bulwark for intergenerational wealth and functional independence, the material foundations that (combined with the inheritances of wisdom, faith, virtue, and the estate) defend against the never-ending onslaught on the individual, his liberty, and his family.
When it comes to identifying an exit point or planning an exit strategy in this bull market, it’s really a matter of one’s tolerance for volatility.
The truth of the matter is that bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. It’s equally true that those with inadequate exit strategies can also get slaughtered.
So, it is true that people will need to temper their optimism, remain disciplined, and prepare for more volatility as this bull market continues to run its course, but what conventional investors like Rick Rule underestimate is that this time truly is different, in that the previous bull markets in gold and silver were primarily driven by singular events.
This time is different because it represents the effect of a whole confluence of independent factors and unprecedented forces.
As Rick Rule has said, we are probably in the midst of a longer bull market trend that “has legs” and several years to run; and so, with a long enough time horizon and a strong enough stomach, the volatility in the meantime is likely worth tolerating as the price of admission — not just for the access to upside potential, but for the assurance against downside risk (to the extent that the American economy continues to stagger, the U.S. dollar continues its slide, and inflation continues unabated). After all, consumer confidence (reported today) has just plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade; and the Expectations Index (based on consumers' short-term outlooks for income, business and labor market conditions) declined by 9.5 points to 65.1. This marks a full year of readings below the threshold of 80, which usually signals that a recession is ahead. This is corroborated by the charted history of the DJIA-to-gold ratio: at no time in history has a marked decline in the DJIA-to-gold ratio reversed course without the American economy first entering an official recession. As for the extent of the most recent decline in the ratio, we are currently more than fifty-five percent below the double-top seen in 2021 and 2022.
So, while it is true that pigs get slaughtered — as the old adage goes — so too do the people who overestimate the safety of whatever position they intend to hold after “leaving the field of play”.
Ultimately, because of the official policies of the Federal Reserve and the ‘accommodative’ policy maintained, and because the U.S. dollar will doubtless be sacrificed to continue blowing air into the “everything bubble”, there are no sidelines on this field. Everything is squarely in the field of play.
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